That's what races tell you...or what you want, or hope, they'll tell you. Most of the time we torture the raw data to death and add in other outside factors and age grade and adjust for heat/cold/wind/illness, to the point where we may end not even being sure what the raw data is telling us anymore.
But now and again, you post something solid and real that tells you that you're pretty much on the right track and I feel like that's how my 10K worked out this morning.
It's not quite as blissed out, make me wanna go run 70 miles next week, delicious as Salty's recent unexpected post-marathon/post-wedding sub-19 5K, but considering I said I'd be happy with anything under 42, a 40:05 suits me just fine.
And, yeah, it was close. I'm trying not to slap myself around too much over that.
If I'd realized I was in that kind of shape, I might have pushed a little more aggressively earlier, but who knows, that could have backfired too. As it was, I ran remarkably even splits: 6:33, 6:27, 6:20, 6:30, 6:40, 6:30 and 1:05 for the .2, and that's something I rarely ever do. And according to NYRR's calculations, that works out to a 6:27 average mile, which incidentally is the same average they figure for the people who actually DID finish in 40 minutes flat.
I know I didn't leave anything out there, because those last two miles really did hurt like a mother and right now I feel like reindeer doo doo. My lungs are gurgling, my legs are cramped up, my tummy is making worriesome noises...I feel absolutely beat. And I actually have a pretty good reason for that - I just came off of two overnight shifts in a row and went straight to the race without sleeping.
So, in the interest of not leaving the data untortured...do I think that running a race right after finishing up two overnight shifts is worth at least 6 seconds? Damn skippy, I do.